The big one is coming, the big one is coming! I don’t want to be the boy who cried wolf, so I will make one big, bold statement and leave it at that.
My Prediction
West Los Angeles is going to experience a 7.0-7.4 earthquake in LA within the next 2 years. It will be centered in West LA, probably around the Santa Monica, Venice, or Culver City area. It will cost more than $50 billion in damage and there will be hundreds of casualties.
Why, you may ask? Well, I have a few stats, but mainly it is a gut feeling. I am relying on two main trends, 1) earthquake cycles and 2) increase in seismic activity.
Earthquake Cycles
It has been 15 years since the Northridge earthquake and in my book that means it is about time for another big one. They say this fault line could produce up to a 7.4 magnitude quake, and considering the Northridge earthquake was around a 6.7, this would be the next bump higher.
Seismic Trends
The earthquakes over the past year have been increasing in frequency and magnitude. We have seen two 4.0+ quakes in the last three days and they are very noticeable. Just makes me feel like the tiles are shifting down there and because of it we may see something big slip.
Earthquake Preparation
A survey of the damage potential has revealed that the big one could shut down power in the area for five days, water for a couple, cause massive traffic delays in central LA due to highway infrastructure failure, and reduce LAX traffic to 30% of normal levels. I would suggest storing batteries, flashlights, candles, and gallon jugs of water along with some canned food. Also, make sure you have an emergency meeting place for your family. Don’t plan on relying on cell phones and email.
Can’t hurt to be prepared!
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Thanks Conner, I shall sleep well now. Since we’re in the Valley, we may just end up with some new oceanfront property! Want me to ‘oversee’ your domains for a few years, just in case!?!?
Unfortunately I completely get what you’re saying, and your reasons for! We are on borrowed time here. At least in terms of being due a big shaker! Hopefully, maybe it’ll be out in the desert somewhere. But it does make sense to be well stocked and prepared. GL.
In the Valley also… hopefully nothing too major happens… but we were talking about this last night. Everyone around me thinks “the big one” is coming soon.
Funny thing. After I posted this, the twitter user @LA_Earthquake started following me (@conorneu). We are not the only ones talking about it…