Amidst the Subprime Collapse, the two most uncertain situations in the market these days are also probably the two largest risks: The Yen-carry Trade and China decoupling.
Whether the Yen-carry will be unwound is not so much the question, but rather the size. Nobody knows and the bid/ask spread is in the trillions of dollars so that does not help much.
Whether China will decouple from the US and world markets and economies is something that great minds truly dissagree on right now. Many argue that China will continue its growth and run as it is so large it can function on its own and with such huge GDP growth that internal growth cannot be slowed by a worldwide recession. Others argue that while it is slowly moving away from it, China is still and export driven economy and needs the rest of the world for whom they will manufacture products.
In bringing the financial and green aspects of this situation together, nothing proves my view more clearly than the recalls of Chinese lead-contaminated steel going on right now.
Products from China are being recalled left and right from toys to pet food. It seems the US and developed world is already starting to reject China’s new role as a world leader. If China is going to reap the benefits of this growth, they have to be held accountable for their products (and pollution) much more than ever before. Previously it was easy for someone to throw out a toy that did not work and not give a second thought, saying “what do you expect? It was made in China.” But now, China does not hold the same poor country image that we all used to assign it. China has money. China has power. And China should make quality products.
I’m not saying that China will not be able to start making quality products (or clean up their air pollution), but to say that China will continue this growth without the rest of the world holding it down is too far-fetched for me to believe in the next 5-10 years.
Popular Posts