
If history is any indication, keep an eye on my travel schedule for the next couple of years. The last two times I have taken a voluntary exotic vacation with Katie (I don’t count my honeymoon as that is a mandatory vacation), the markets have crashed hard.
The first time was in September of 2008. The indications were almost there the day we left for Italy, but Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy on Monday of the trip and by mid-week all hell had broken loose and the markets were in free fall. I spent the nights online working and the days sleeping in the sun while Katie patiently watched in disappointment. The trip was ruined and understandably so.
This time was a bit more gentle, but it still happened. Last week, I left to charter a sailboat in the British Virgin Islands with little hesitation about leaving. Yet sure enough, it happened again. The markets crashed midweek. It started in Europe and carried over the US. At one point, the DOW was down 1000 points intraday and the VIX was up almost 20 points on the week. This week is lining up to be a crazy one, with the potential of a European country or bank defaulting being quite high (today’s rally is still volatility, good or bad).
I have no explanation other than pure coincidence. But, it could surely happen again. I’ll make sure I send out a remind for my sunny vacation of 2012. It might just be the right time to get short again.
*image source: yahoo.com
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