Check out the crime rate headlines for the first half of 2009 that have been coming out from the FBI over the last two weeks.
- In the first half of 2009, as unemployment skyrocketed, violent crime (reported murders, forcible rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults) decreased by 4.4 percent compared with the first half of 2008
- Homicide down 29.8% in Los Angeles
- Homicide down 14% in Atlanta
- Homicide down 10% in Boston
- Property crime down 6.1% nationwide
Crime Rates Falling
Murder rates have been falling for two decades, but most people assume that during difficult financial times crime will increase. In fact, it did quite the opposite.
There have been dozens of studies and hundreds of theories on why crime has been dropping over the past two decades. There will surely be more done after these impressive statistics this year.
The one overwhelming reason that studies and analysis do tend to agree upon is that the drop in crime is most likely due to a multitude of factors and not one specific change.
Social Media’s Impact on Crime
Throwing my two cents into the mix, I would like to offer out that crime is falling as the whole social and mobile media phenomenon is growing. I think they are correlated.
I am not necessarily just talking about Facebook here. I am talking about technology, especially mobile technology, and it’s impact on how we interact with each other.
First of all, mobile phones keep us better connected to the rest of the world. As an example, there was an article in the Economist (“Calling Freedom“, Dec 19th issue) regarding the kidnappings in Columbia.
A recent study and theory show that kidnappings are dropping in areas of the country where the number of mobile phones is growing. Police and the studies attribute the change to the ability of victims and witnesses to report the crimes quickly.
The most valuable time in a kidnapping case investigation is within the first 30 minutes of a kidnapping. If the victim is able to make a call as it is happening, or if a witness reports a kidnapping immediately, this information is vital to those first 30 minutes. Not only are kidnappings dropping in the areas where mobile phone use is growing, but more kidnappings are being foiled or prevented as well.
US Crime versus Phones
I think this theory makes a lot of sense logically and I think parts of this carry over to other types of crime in the United States. Mobile phone usage has continually increased over the past two decades, but something changed in the last 12-18 months.
2009 was the year of the iPhone. More pictures, text messages, Facebook and Twitter updates, and other media communications were made last year than ever before.
It may not necessarily mean that the phones and cameras are responsible for stopping a lot of crimes in action, but I think they go a long way to preventing them. The fear of a showing up in a Youtube video and being arrested for doing something wrong is certainly on people’s minds these days.
Internet Crime Growing
Another twist to this theory is that digital and online crime continues to grow. The FBI saw an Internet Fraud increase of 33% in 2008 and identity theft is a continuosly growing hazzard.
I think much of this is due to the fact that perhaps the only place anyone can hide to perform crime any more is within the confines of their own home. In other words, only when you are not out in public, where are you are risk to being put on Youtube at any moment, may you be safe to perform a crime.
Big Neighbor
Decades ago, George Orwell worried everyone that the government would be watching our every move. It turns out that Big Brother may actually be our neighbors.
Large studies would have to be conducted to prove this theory, but I think mobile media is a significant contributor to the drop in crime. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next couple years as social media and mobile technology grows rapidly over this period.
*image source: washingtonpost.com, cartoonstock.com, economist.com
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