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John Mauldin on the Future of Technology

Water

This weeks post from John is very non-financial, but it goes off on an interesting tangent analyzing technology opportunities of the future.

Here are some of the topics he covers and key quotes on each:

Nanoscale: “Batteries made from carbon nanotubes hold tremendous promise for better storage (by 400 times less weight per watt output). Filtering of seawater to produce fresh water, increased computer speed and power – there is a long and rapidly growing list of nanoscale advances.”

It is interesting how some of these topics overlap.  Nanoscale with the Water Purification he mentions, below.

Robots and the Mauldin Test (as opposed to the Turing Test): “I proposed the Mauldin Test. When a computer tells us that it no longer wishes to program a smarter computer, we will have arrived at the point of self-awareness and survival instinct. I suggest that is true AI.”

I still think most robot technology is more of a gimmick than a goal.  Too much emphasis on designing for it’s look (to be human) than for it’s purpose.  Why is a robot being human the ultimate goal?  We already have plenty of humans.

Water Purification: “Water may be my #1 concern about the future. It is an intractable problem and one that must be solved. There is Microsoft- or Google-type wealth awaiting the team that creates an inexpensive way to purify water. Water management will be a major issue in the future. There are those who think we will go to war over oil or energy in the future. I rather doubt it. Water rights are going to be the issue that will divide nations and peoples unless we can find new technologies to create cheap supplies of fresh water and move it to where it is needed.”

Totally on board with the importance of water.  Just wish I had more of a chemistry/marine biology/nanoscale background to be able to understand all of the issues better.

Biotech: “The human genome project was launched in 1990. It cost $3 billion. At the time, detractors said it was a waste of time, as it would take a thousand years – and they were right, if you assumed then-current technology. It actually took only 11 years (to 2001), as new technologies were constantly invented. Craig Venter started Celera in 1998 and finished in a dead heat with the government for a fraction of the cost, at around $300 million.  Where are we now? Ray McCauley of Illumina told us of a machine they make that can do the entire human genome in one week. The cost of the machine is $750,000.”

As he mentions, I am totally willing to donate my DNA to be mapped publicly.

Steve Jurveston: “Steve Jurvetson, the #1 most influential geek (according to Wired, I think) simply blew us away. I would like to tie him to a chair for five hours and find out why he invested the billions of dollars in the scores of companies he has helped launch. He is focusing on clean tech, as is a lot of Silicon Valley. He sees 5,000 business plans a year. He talks about how we are soon in for Perpetual Future Shock. There are 6 x 10 to the 21 microbes in the ocean. There are microbes that only exist in certain parts of the ocean. We have only begun to explore the world. It is going to take a long time to switch to renewables. Maybe by 2030. He is blown away by how many incredible ideas there are. This is a guy who did his EE major at Stanford in 2.5 years and was #1 in his class. Intimidatingly smart.”

Never heard of this guy until now, but after reading and watching some of his stuff, I am his latest greatest fan.

Nuclear Power: “Did you know that the nuclear waste we already have could power the US for centuries? The technology exists to use it, as France has done for a long time.”

I am a big fan of nuclear power.  It is green technology that is only held back by a negative stigma from problems caused by technology from the 70’s.  It is one movement where I hope Obama succeeds.

I like this quote from him to finish this all off:

“In the future, the world will get turned on its head. Instead of 15 minutes of fame, you will only get 15 minutes of anonymity.”

He was referring to how biotech will allow us to identify everything about everyone, including everything they touch.  I like it in reference to the social media internet growth as well.

OK Go – This Too Shall Pass

These guys are awesome…love this video. Amazingly it is not even their official video for this song that is on iTunes.

Toilets in Japan

Japan Digital Toilet

This may seem like a bit of a ridiculous blog topic, but as any previous visitor can tell you, Japanese toilets are truly one of the interesting aspects of Japan.  I mean no offense to anyone.  But once you’ve used a $10,000 toilet, curiosity sets in.

Japanese toilets represent the ultimate luxury in “using the bathroom.” Previously, in Japan, the toilets used to basically be a hole in the ground. However, in the last couple decades, Japan has converted to western toilets and taken it to a whole new level. The technology and attention to detail is unrivaled. Most have a full control panel with buttons that do everything and anything, yet are entirely impossible to understand.  Let’s have a look through some of the functionality and differences I’ve come across this trip.

  • Heated seats – This is a fairly standard function here and much appreciated.  After having spent last weekend skiing in Mammoth and staying at a mountain cabin, I was reminded all too quickly of the negative aspect of a cold toilet seat.  The more advanced toilets have knobs or digital indicators for setting the toilet seat temperature, and yes, it is possible to get it too hot.  I’ve never heard of an actual burn, but “toasty cheeks” takes an all new meaning here.
  • Flushing Noise button – Among the hundreds of potential buttons on a toilet here, one of the ones I have seen in our office building is a “Flushing Noise” button.  Effectively, you press it and it makes the sound of a toilet flush.  I could not figure out the purpose (I can’t figure most of the buttons out, but this one intrigued me) and had to ask my co-workers.  My guess was that it was for when some guy in the stall next to you asks for a courtesy flush and you could fake him out with the fake flushing noise.  But, no, apparently it is to be polite and mask the noises you’re making for those in the stalls next to you.  Why the button wouldn’t just play music is beyond me.
  • Non-perforated TP – This is something I take for granted at home.  It’s not the standard, but there are a lot of toilets here that have toilet paper that does not have the perforations to separate out the TP into little squares.  Instead, it is one continuous roll and you have to tear it off.  It changes pulling off toilet paper from a one hand job into a two hand job.  Not the worst thing in the world, but the fact that non-perforated TP exists here is shocking.
  • Full length doors – Most stalls in Japan have doors that go all the way to the floor.  I once heard a discussion between Adam Carolla and Bill Simmons (The Sports Guy) about full length doors that made me analyze these here in Japan.  The doors definitely provide more privacy as Carolla suggests, which can be both good and bad.  The Japanese have seemed to attack the light issue by still leaving a gap at the top above the door and having better lighting over individual stalls.  I am sure that it makes it more difficult to clean as they also discuss, but I think the Japanese design for the privacy of the user over the difficulty of job by the janitor.  Makes sense.
  • Auto-raising seats – I cannot figure out how the toilet sensors can tell if I need to stand or sit, but somehow it always seems to know which one.  The seat raises when I come up to it and drops back down afterward…all hands free.
  • Lack of flushing lever – Often the buttons can be far too complicated to figure out.  Last night I spent about 3 minutes trying to find the flush button on a toilet at the bar in Roppongi.  I pressed anything I could find, but there was no easy lever or BIG button that made it obvious.  In the end, I had to give up and leave the toilet, unflushed, in hopes the next user was more experienced than myself.
  • Front and Back Bidet – These toilets are made to spray you from every angle, with varying warmth of water, and then blow dry you afterward.  There are at least a dozen buttons for this process and each one will spray or dry you from a different angle.  I will admit to trying them all (as I said, curiosity sets in), but have not enjoyed it enough to use again.  Warning: Be careful when trying these buttons – there are levers and nozzles that come out of everywhere to attack you.
  • Double Flush – There are buttons for the double flush and power flush.  It will flush multiple times when you’re complete.  In actuality I think there are like 10 buttons for flushing, but I cannot figure out all of the difference between each of them.

Besides these, there are many of the standard buttons you would expect, such as the ability to control the music and lights in the room. There are dozens of other functions that you can find all over Youtube, but I cannot figure them all out yet. All I can say is that it is worth the experience.

WiFi in Tokyo

I must admit that I am a bit frustrated by the lack of available Wifi in Tokyo. Well, free wifi, that is.

While I picked up a Japanese rental mobile phone while I’m here, it’s not my iPhone. It does not have all of my apps set up, my email, my photos, my music, etc. If I take pictures on it, I cannot even figure out how to send them because most of the functions are in Japanese.

So, basically, I am back to where I was a few months ago, where I have one phone for calls (used to be my blackberry) and one phone for photos, music, etc. The only problem is that the second phone (my iPhone) cannot find the Internet often enough.

In the States it seems I am always able to find a free wifi connection to tap into from my iPhone to get faster Internet than 3G offers. I know that Japan actually has an even faster network that 3G now (I think they are passed 3.5G and are maybe on 4G or 5G now). This is great except for the fact that normal US cell phones don’t work here.

Now, this is not to say that there is not wifi around. I am constantly able to find 5-10 networks to connect to. In fact, there are a lot more wifi access points. It’s just that they are all private. All password protected.

While I completely understand the point behind protecting your personal wifi router, it is also frustrating. If everyone is going to be protective, than I wish there should be more of an effort by the city to offer a citywide wifi or something like that. Not that this is done well in the States, but it is in progress. In the meantime, people aren’t desperate for it because there are quite a few free hotspots to find an use.

Interestingly enough, while putting together this rant, I found an iPhone app called “Free Wifi Tokyo”. Apparently, I am not the only one to have this problem. I am installing it now. Let’s just hope it helps direct me to those hotspots.

Free Wifi Tokyo

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