
This weeks post from John is very non-financial, but it goes off on an interesting tangent analyzing technology opportunities of the future.
Here are some of the topics he covers and key quotes on each:
Nanoscale: “Batteries made from carbon nanotubes hold tremendous promise for better storage (by 400 times less weight per watt output). Filtering of seawater to produce fresh water, increased computer speed and power – there is a long and rapidly growing list of nanoscale advances.”
It is interesting how some of these topics overlap. Nanoscale with the Water Purification he mentions, below.
Robots and the Mauldin Test (as opposed to the Turing Test): “I proposed the Mauldin Test. When a computer tells us that it no longer wishes to program a smarter computer, we will have arrived at the point of self-awareness and survival instinct. I suggest that is true AI.”
I still think most robot technology is more of a gimmick than a goal. Too much emphasis on designing for it’s look (to be human) than for it’s purpose. Why is a robot being human the ultimate goal? We already have plenty of humans.
Water Purification: “Water may be my #1 concern about the future. It is an intractable problem and one that must be solved. There is Microsoft- or Google-type wealth awaiting the team that creates an inexpensive way to purify water. Water management will be a major issue in the future. There are those who think we will go to war over oil or energy in the future. I rather doubt it. Water rights are going to be the issue that will divide nations and peoples unless we can find new technologies to create cheap supplies of fresh water and move it to where it is needed.”
Totally on board with the importance of water. Just wish I had more of a chemistry/marine biology/nanoscale background to be able to understand all of the issues better.
Biotech: “The human genome project was launched in 1990. It cost $3 billion. At the time, detractors said it was a waste of time, as it would take a thousand years – and they were right, if you assumed then-current technology. It actually took only 11 years (to 2001), as new technologies were constantly invented. Craig Venter started Celera in 1998 and finished in a dead heat with the government for a fraction of the cost, at around $300 million. Where are we now? Ray McCauley of Illumina told us of a machine they make that can do the entire human genome in one week. The cost of the machine is $750,000.”
As he mentions, I am totally willing to donate my DNA to be mapped publicly.
Steve Jurveston: “Steve Jurvetson, the #1 most influential geek (according to Wired, I think) simply blew us away. I would like to tie him to a chair for five hours and find out why he invested the billions of dollars in the scores of companies he has helped launch. He is focusing on clean tech, as is a lot of Silicon Valley. He sees 5,000 business plans a year. He talks about how we are soon in for Perpetual Future Shock. There are 6 x 10 to the 21 microbes in the ocean. There are microbes that only exist in certain parts of the ocean. We have only begun to explore the world. It is going to take a long time to switch to renewables. Maybe by 2030. He is blown away by how many incredible ideas there are. This is a guy who did his EE major at Stanford in 2.5 years and was #1 in his class. Intimidatingly smart.”
Never heard of this guy until now, but after reading and watching some of his stuff, I am his latest greatest fan.
Nuclear Power: “Did you know that the nuclear waste we already have could power the US for centuries? The technology exists to use it, as France has done for a long time.”
I am a big fan of nuclear power. It is green technology that is only held back by a negative stigma from problems caused by technology from the 70’s. It is one movement where I hope Obama succeeds.
I like this quote from him to finish this all off:
“In the future, the world will get turned on its head. Instead of 15 minutes of fame, you will only get 15 minutes of anonymity.”
He was referring to how biotech will allow us to identify everything about everyone, including everything they touch. I like it in reference to the social media internet growth as well.





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